As the European Union moves away from Russian gas, it is becoming ever more reliant on liquefied natural gas from the United States. This increasing concentration of supply sits uneasily with the goals of the REPowerEU strategy, which is meant to diversify energy sources and rein in costs.
Since 2022, the EU has steadily reduced imports of Russian gas. Between 2021 and 2025, supplies from Russia – both pipeline gas and LNG – fell by 75%. Yet Russia remains among the bloc’s major gas suppliers. In response, Brussels has opted for a legally binding, phased ban on Russian gas: LNG imports from the end of 2026, followed by pipeline gas from autumn 2027.
The shortfall left by Russian deliveries is being filled largely by the United States. Imports of US LNG have almost quadrupled, and last year the US accounted for 57% of total EU LNG imports. Analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) suggests that new long-term contracts could push the US share of EU LNG imports to 75-80% by 2030.
Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst for IEEFA’s European team, stresses that the challenge extends beyond the supplier’s nationality. “Our analysis highlights the risks Europe faces from continued reliance on fossil fuel imports – regardless of where they come from – and the consequences of failing to sustain progress in reducing gas demand,” she says.
According to Jaller-Makarewicz, the EU can strengthen its energy autonomy by investing in electrification, energy efficiency and renewable sources, while at the same time curbing gas consumption.
Poland’s Break with Russian Gas
Poland was among the first EU member states to have completely eliminated gas imports from Russia in 2022, making it a prominent example of the REPowerEU approach. The transformation of its gas sector was swift and unprecedented. As recently as 2021, Russia supplied 58% of Poland’s imported natural gas. This changed abruptly after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine: in April 2022, following Warsaw’s refusal to pay in roubles, Russian supplies were cut off entirely.
Central to Poland’s diversification strategy is the LNG terminal in Świnoujście. In 2025, the facility received a record number of LNG cargoes from the United States, covering roughly 40% of domestic demand. Despite this scale, Poland is negotiating additional long-term contracts for US LNG, including supplies intended for Ukraine and Slovakia. A second terminal in Gdańsk, scheduled to open in 2028, is expected to double Poland’s regasification capacity.
Trade Deals and Long-Term Commitments
In July 2025, the EU and the US announced a trade agreement under which the bloc committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of American energy by 2028. IEEFA analysts argue that such an arrangement effectively ties Europe’s energy supply to a single vendor and could weaken long-term energy security.
The institute notes that deploying these funds differently could deliver markedly different outcomes. According to IEEFA estimates, investing $750 billion in renewable energy could enable the installation of around 546 GW of wind and solar capacity, bolstering energy security and potentially lowering electricity prices.
The Risks of Overconcentration
Europe’s reliance on US LNG may deepen further as a result of agreements concluded at the Gastech conference in Milan and meetings of the Partnership for Transatlantic Energy and Climate Cooperation (P-TEC) in Athens in 2025. IEEFA modelled a scenario in which all these contracts are implemented while EU efforts to reduce gas demand fall short.
Under this scenario, US LNG imports could reach about 115 billion cubic metres annually by 2030, meaning that 75–80% of the EU’s LNG would come from a single country. The US share of total EU gas and LNG imports could rise from 27% in 2025 to 40% in 2030.
Jaller-Makarewicz warns against repeating past mistakes.“The EU risks becoming excessively dependent on one supplier, much as it was on Russian gas before 2022,” she cautions.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Norway emerged as the EU’s leading gas supplier, but IEEFA suggests the United States could assume that role in the years ahead. “True diversification must go beyond import routes and include a much larger role for renewables in the energy mix,” she adds.
REPowerEU Under Strain
Launched in May 2022, REPowerEU was designed to end the EU’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 through energy savings, supply diversification and accelerated deployment of renewables. According to IEEFA, these efforts have already cut EU gas consumption by more than 20% between 2021 and 2024. At the same time, however, growing reliance on US LNG—among the most expensive options for European consumers—risks undermining these gains. “The more fossil fuels the EU imports, the more exposed its energy market becomes to global geopolitical shocks,” Jaller-Makarewicz warns.
She argues that the bloc must stick closely to its REPowerEU commitments to avoid replacing one geopolitical vulnerability with another.
