For about a week now, various posts have been appearing on social media platform “X” emphasizing that “Latvia is in the last place.” This theme is also actively used by people associated with the “No Parties” movement.
Delfi explains whether Latvia really is in last place and where this theme comes from.
“Today, EUROSTAT officially confirmed that Latvia has finally reached the BOTTOM OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,” wrote theater director Alvis Hermanis on December 17. In his next post, Hermanis added a link to the Eurostat website. Two days later, businessman Armands Broks also referred to Hermanis and wrote: “[..] According to Eurostat data, Latvia is currently in last place in Europe, and it would be foolish to give up in this situation.” Only after another user asked, he did clarify what data he was referring to.
Other “X” users also repeated Latvia’s last-place ranking, but what are they all referring to?
A statistical indicator turned into a political slogan
On December 17, Eurostat published an article entitled “Household material welfare varies widely in the EU”. In its article, Eurostat explains that in 2024, actual individual consumption, which is used as an indicator of household material well-being, ranged from 72% to 146% of the EU average in European Union (EU) countries.
Last year, actual individual consumption per capita in 10 countries was equal to or higher than the EU average. Luxembourg was the leader, with a figure 46% higher than the EU average. The lowest actual individual consumption per capita was recorded in Latvia (28% below the EU average), as well as in Bulgaria and Hungary (both countries 27% below the EU average).
The same article points out that the indicator – gross domestic product (GDP) per capita – also varied significantly between EU countries: in ten countries, GDP per capita exceeded the EU average. The highest GDP per capita was recorded in Luxembourg (245% of the EU average). The lowest GDP per capita was recorded in Bulgaria (66% of the EU average), Latvia (68%), and Greece (69%).
As a result, last year, in 2024, Latvia’s actual individual consumption per capita was the lowest in the EU, but this single indicator does not allow us to conclude that, overall, “Latvia is now in last place in Europe according to Eurostat data” or, more generally, that “Latvia has finally reached the BOTTOM OF THE EUROPEAN UNION.”
In this case, the disseminators of information do not immediately say in which indicator Latvia ranks last, and they generalize the statement. Highlighting and generalizing one indicator, even if true, while ignoring others, is a form of misleading information (“cherry-picking”).
2024: A Cautious Year
What is actual individual consumption? As explained by SEB bank economist Dainis Gašpuitis, this indicator includes all goods and services used by households. “Moreover, it includes not only what they purchase themselves but also what is provided by the state. Price differences and inflation trends can also affect their position in the table. Changes in positions are influenced by how actively households themselves have been spending,” notes the economist.
Commenting on Eurostat data on actual individual consumption levels, he told Delfi that Latvia is generally in the usual company of countries with lower economic development indicators in the EU. The economist notes that in previous years we have been in a relatively better position, for example, overtaking Estonia in 2022.
Gašpuitis points out that 2024 was a cautious year in terms of consumption, but with consumption picking up, there are opportunities to improve the situation. “The positions are also influenced by differences in price levels between countries and what national governments undertake to cover or provide.
Therefore, we see that the relative 100% level is also variable, as are the positions in the table. The table does not reflect the quality of goods and services, which is also very important,” continues Gašpuitis.
He predicts that “next year the ranking may be different, but overall the differences between the countries at the bottom of the table are so small that there is no need to worry too much about it. It is more important to find a path to sustainable and faster economic growth.”
“Luminor” Chief Economist Pēteris Strautiņš acknowledges that there is a growing perception in society that the pace of prosperity growth in our country is mediocre or even weak. Although, as the economist points out, there are elements of truth in this perception, Latvia’s performance has been outstanding in the long term.
For example, according to Eurostat, GDP growth per capita in Latvia between 1995 and 2024 was the second fastest in the EU after Lithuania. World Bank (WB) calculations show that between 1993 and 2023, Latvia’s GDP per capita growth was the fastest among all countries currently classified by the WB as high-income.
“However, since 2019, real gross domestic product per capita has grown only slightly faster than the EU average – by 6.9% compared to 4.3% on average in the EU. Both fate and inaction have slowed down development. Our country is more affected by the war in Ukraine than the European average.
However, performance would be better if more had been done previously to attract investment, which could be the main factor determining the growing gap between Latvia and Lithuania,” the economist admits.
Strautiņš emphasizes to Delfi that the war in Ukraine has had much less of an impact on several countries in southern Europe with relatively low incomes. These countries continue to benefit from the recovery of the tourism industry after the pandemic.
However, the situation changed in 2025, and cyclical factors could be much more favorable for Latvia and other European countries in the next two years, the economist predicts.
When asked whether Latvia ranks last in the EU, Strautiņš points out that, based on this single parameter, it clearly did last year. However, he also urges us to consider the circumstances as a whole.
The economist notes that Latvia is not in last place in terms of GDP per capita: “Not all GDP is consumed. The Greeks are helped to consume more by the fact that the level of investment in their economy has been very low for a long time.
In Latvia, on the other hand, there has not been a single year since 2010 when the ratio of investment in fixed assets to GDP has been below the EU average. In 2016, it was equal, but in all other years it was higher.”
Soviet rule, financial crisis, war in Ukraine
Delfi also asked the Ministry of Economics (EM) for comment. It also points out that both indicators – Latvia’s GDP per capita and actual individual consumption levels – are influenced by several closely related factors. One of the main factors is the complex historical legacy, which is marked by the consequences of the Soviet era, the challenges of the transition period, and demographic changes.
In the early 1990s, when Latvia regained its independence, GDP per capita was only about one-third of the EU average. By 2004, when Latvia joined the EU, GDP per capita had already reached 45.2% of the EU average.
After joining the EU, the indicators grew rapidly, but in 2008 the pace slowed down. There are several reasons for this, according to the ministry. First, the 2008 financial crisis hit Latvia harder than our neighboring countries and the EU average. Second, between 2016 and 2018, Latvia’s banking sector underwent significant changes, which reduced the size of the financial sector and negatively affected lending and growth. And third, the war in Ukraine has had a deeper impact on Latvia’s economy than the EU average, as Latvia had closer economic ties with Russia.
The Ministry of Economics also notes that in recent years, Latvia’s position in terms of individual consumption indicators has also been affected by a faster-than-average rise in prices in the EU, which has also had an overall impact on the purchasing power of Latvian households relative to other EU countries.
